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Thursday, August 02, 2007

Forex - Calm Before the Friday Storm?

EUR/USD today continued going flat below 1.3700 mark unsure if Euro has enough power and U.S. economy has more holes to stop Bernanke from raising the rates before the Autumn comes. This day didn't bring a lot of macroeconomic surprise to traders, but it had its important data.
Initial jobless claims for the previous week in United States increased by as little as 4k and came out at 307k - still lower than 310k predicted - that is, the employment market remains one of the steadiest part of the U.S. economy.
Factory orders in June rose by 0.6% which is far better than the May's number of -0.5% decline, but slightly lower than predicted growth of 1.0%. I think that this indicator will just be a little slower second half of the 2007, staying positive to provide better total GDP numbers.

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Tuesday, July 03, 2007

EUR/USD Slight Correction

Today EUR/USD retreated from its yesterday levels of 1.3630 down to 1.3600 level (with a failed try ground below 1.3600). Factory orders macroeconomic data for May came out better than expected but it still showed a decrease in this important indicator - manufacturers orders decreased by 0.5% (against 1.2% expected). But this data didn't affect Forex at all - the major bearish bars were seen four hours before it came out. It looks like EUR/USD will remain bound in 1.3600 - 1.3650 range for some time.

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Monday, June 04, 2007

Tough Times for USD

Today were not the best times for USD bulls as the Factory Orders indicator increased only by 0.3% (against 0.6% expected). Low growth of manufacturing orders means a slower growth of overall economy, while U.S. economy is already slow as a turtle with 2007 GDP estimated at around 1%. Such bad macroeconomic data will push EUR/USD up, even if technical analysis will cry for a correction. On the other side, previous Factory Orders indicator was revised towards better side - 4.1% from 3.5% which might cause some support for dollar on Forex.

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